Storm Warning: Subtle Signs Before the Slip

It builds up in my body. Everything’s moving really fast.”

John* felt resentful toward sobriety. He was in a constant state of discomfort. He would walk past the bars in his neighborhood and seethe with jealousy. He was filled with anxiety and anger. Then, he’d relapse.

When I set out to explore the science of relapse prevention, I immediately thought of John. Over the past seven years, he has tried inpatient rehab, outpatient programs, sober living, and 12-step meetings to deal with his drug and alcohol addiction. Despite these resources, every time he hit 60 days, he went back out.

I sought his help to better understand the period preceding a return to use. In treatment, I was taught that relapse is a process that could be broken down into distinct stages - emotional, mental, and physical. I had read the research defining this principle. However, I couldn’t relate to it.

My first and only relapse felt sudden and immediate. Similar to John, it occurred on Day 56. I was soaring on a pink cloud of sobriety. Then, the opportunity was presented to me, and I knew I wasn’t strong enough to say no.

John’s experience is antithetical to mine. Each time he decided to return to use, he was in the midst of an emotional storm, sometimes beginning long before he consciously considered leaving the program. His relapses, he told me, were premeditated and carefully orchestrated. He waited for the perfect moment and acted.

“I plan everything out,” he said. “It’s not like I’m at a dinner and decide to take a drink.”

As I listened to his story, I was surprised to find myself relating - not to my history with substances, but to my experience with disordered eating.

I empathized with every word he used to describe his emotional state. I compared my body to others. I felt anxious before meals and angry after. I wanted to crawl out of my skin. And then, I’d stop eating.

Storms don’t come out of nowhere. They build slowly, shaped by invisible forces, until they unleash havoc. Relapse, whether it be substance use or mental illness, is similar. It’s often the final act in a quiet internal progression. But that process can be interrupted if we know what to look for.

If you live with one of these conditions, the word relapse might carry your deepest fears. Shame. Hopelessness. The belief that you’ve failed or have to start over. But relapse isn’t failure. It’s information. And when you learn to recognize its early stages, you gain the power to choose a different path.

The Three Stages of Relapse

The three-stage framework of relapse - emotional, mental, and physical - is attributed to Terence Gorski’s 1982 paper “The Phases and Warning Signs of Relapse”.

Today, this model is taught in rehab centers, therapy programs, and 12-step communities worldwide. While some critics argue that Gorski's signs are overly clinical or reductive, studies have characterized them as both reliable and valid.

The most concise and helpful explanation I found was Steven Melemis’ 2015 paper, “Relapse Prevention and the Five Rules of Recovery.” He defines the goal as early intervention — recognizing warning signs when it’s easiest to change course.

Let’s break it down.

Stage One: Emotional Relapse

You’re not thinking about using — but you’re drifting.

This is the most subtle stage. There’s no conscious desire to return to old behaviors. But your emotions and routines are quietly shifting. You feel off, but you can’t quite explain why.

Common Signs:

• Pulling away from community or support
• Poor sleep and eating habits (too much or too little)
• Bottling up feelings
• Fixating on other people’s problems
• General exhaustion or overwhelm
• Neglecting hygiene

“The common denominator of emotional relapse is poor self-care.” - Melemis

What it Feels Like:

The check engine light is on, but you keep driving, hoping it’ll turn itself off.

For me, it’s a low-grade hum of discomfort — a vague restlessness I can’t name. I’ll scroll endlessly or binge-watch TV just to numb out.

John bottles up his emotions. He feels scared to admit his feelings to those closest to him. He fears he would be shamed if he shared his doubts about sobriety.

What to Do:

• Check-in daily: “How am I really feeling?” Even a quick journal note can help.
• Use HALT: Are you Hungry, Angry, Lonely, or Tired?
• Talk it out: Be radically honest with someone you trust.
• Seek support: A therapist or sponsor can help you process what’s beneath the surface.

Stage Two: Mental Relapse

Now, the thoughts creep in.

Left unchecked, emotional relapse can evolve into mental relapse — an internal tug-of-war. You begin fantasizing about using, bargaining with yourself, and romanticizing the past.

Common Signs:

• Increased cravings or urges
• Glamorizing past use
• Bargaining: “Just once” or “I’ll start over tomorrow”
• Thinking about old people, places, or habits
• Lying about how you’re feeling
• Secretly planning when and how to relapse

“Once a person has experienced addiction, it is impossible to erase the memory. But with good coping skills, they can learn to let go of thoughts of using quickly.” - Melemis

What it Feels Like:

This stage is a mind game. It’s a lawyer in your head building a case for why you should relapse.

John says he would minimize the consequences of going out. He would blame everyone else for his problems. Finally, he would bargain with himself. He would convince himself that this time he could control it.

What to Do:

• Break the silence: Tell someone what’s going on in your head.
• Disrupt the loop: Move your body. Create something. Change your environment.
• Play the tape forward: Imagine the consequences of relapse - vividly and honestly.

Stage Three: Physical Relapse

The act itself.

This is when the actual use or disordered behavior happens. It may feel like a surprise, but it’s the end of a progression.

Common Signs:

• Reengaging in old behaviors
• Disappearing from routines and support
• Secrecy, shame, or isolation

“Most physical relapses are relapses of opportunity… when someone believes they won’t get caught.” - Melemis

What it Feels Like:

At first: relief. John describes it as “unlocking a different side” of himself.

Then, the crash - regret, shame, grief.

What to Do:

• Get honest immediately: Tell someone safe. Don’t let secrecy grow.
• Reconnect: Go to a meeting, call a therapist, and lean on your community.
• Treat it as data, not defeat: Reflect without judgment. What led up to it? What warning signs were there?

A Framework, Not a Prescription

This model isn’t a checklist, and recovery isn’t one-size-fits-all. You might not resonate with every sign or stage, and that’s okay. For instance, John continued going to meetings and sharing even while privately questioning his sobriety.

Both of us described our experiences as nonlinear, with the stages overlapping and blurry. The value of this framework is in the awareness it builds. It’s a map, not a mandate, to help you navigate your journey.

Recovery Is Ongoing

Today, John is nearly six months sober. The difference between now and then? He catches the warning signs.

“I play it forward,” he says. “I think about the life I have built in sobriety.”

He also doesn’t focus on forever. Just today.

His advice for chronic relapsers:

“Figure out if you want to be sober or not — and pick a side. Because going in and out is worse than either of them.”

Relapse is Data, Not Defeat

Relapse can feel like the end of the world, but it doesn’t have to be. For many, it becomes a powerful turning point.

Recovery isn’t linear, and it’s not static. It’s not about falling off the wagon. It’s about building a stronger wagon - one with better wheels, sturdier axles, and a seatbelt for when the road gets rough.

Knowing the stages of relapse gives you language, awareness, and choice. You can intervene at any point. You can ask for help. You can try again.

Relapse doesn’t define you. Your response does.

Let’s Talk

What warning signs have you noticed in yourself?

What’s one new tool you’re committing to this week?

👇 Share your thoughts in the comments. Let’s talk about the real, messy, beautiful truth of recovery.

* Name has been changed.